Publications

In this paper, we propose a multilayer inhomogeneous random graph model (MIRG), whose layers may consist of both single-edge and multi-edge graphs. In the single layer case, it has been shown that the regular variation of the weight distribution underlying the inhomogeneous random graph implies the regular variation of the typical degree distribution. We extend this correspondence to the multilayer case by showing that the multivariate regular variation of the weight distribution implies the multivariate regular variation of the asymptotic degree distribution. Furthermore, in certain circumstances, the extremal dependence structure present in the weight distribution will be adopted by the asymptotic degree distribution. By considering the asymptotic degree distribution, a wider class of Chung-Lu and Norros-Reittu graphs may be incorporated into the MIRG layers. Additionally, we prove consistency of the Hill estimator when applied to degrees of the MIRG that have a tail index greater than 1. Simulation results indicate that, in practice, hidden regular variation may be consistently detected from an observed MIRG.

Reciprocity, or the tendency of individuals to mirror behavior, is a key measure that describes information exchange in a social network. Users in social networks tend to engage in different levels of reciprocal behavior. Differences in such behavior may indicate the existence of communities that reciprocate links at varying rates. In this paper, we develop methodology to model the diverse reciprocal behavior in growing social networks. In particular, we present a preferential attachment model with heterogeneous reciprocity that imitates the attraction users have for popular users, plus the heterogeneous nature by which they reciprocate links. We compare Bayesian and frequentist model fitting techniques for large networks, as well as computationally efficient variational alternatives. Cases where the number of communities are known and unknown are both considered. We apply the presented methods to the analysis of a Facebook wallpost network where users have non-uniform reciprocal behavior patterns. The fitted model captures the heavy-tailed nature of the empirical degree distributions in the Facebook data and identifies multiple groups of users that differ in their tendency to reply to and receive responses to wallposts.

Generative, temporal network models play an important role in analyzing the dependence structure and evolution patterns of complex networks. Due to the complicated nature of real network data, it is often naive to assume that the underlying data-generative mechanism itself is invariant with time. Such observation leads to the study of changepoints or sudden shifts in the distributional structure of the evolving network. In this paper, we propose a likelihood-based methodology to detect changepoints in undirected, affine preferential attachment networks, and establish a hypothesis testing framework to detect a single changepoint, together with a consistent estimator for the changepoint. Such results require establishing consistency and asymptotic normality of the MLE under the changepoint regime, which suffers from long range dependence. The methodology is then extended to the multiple changepoint setting via both a sliding window method and a more computationally efficient score statistic. We also compare the proposed methodology with previously developed non-parametric estimators of the changepoint via simulation, and the methods developed herein are applied to modeling the popularity of a topic in a Twitter network over time.

Reciprocity in social networks helps understand information exchange between two individuals, and indicates interaction patterns between pairs of users. A recent study indicates the reciprocity coefficient of a classical directed preferential attachment (PA) model does not match empirical evidence. In this paper, we extend the classical 3-scenario directed PA model by adding an additional parameter that controls the probability of creating a reciprocal edge. Our proposed model also allows edge creation between two existing nodes, making it a more realistic choice for fitting to real datasets. In addition to analysis of the theoretical properties of this PA model with reciprocity, we provide and compare two estimation procedures for the fitting of the extended model to both simulated and real datasets. The fitted models provide a good match with the empirical tail distributions of both in- and out-degrees. Other mismatched diagnostics suggest that further generalization of the model is warranted.

The comparison of two time series often arises in climatology, environmental science, and econometrics. Through natural and physical circumstances these series are often dependent. We develop a hypothesis test for the equality of autocovariance functions for two linearly dependent multivariate time series. Previous tests for two independent series are reviewed and extended to the dependent case. A univariate bootstrapped statistic that automatically selects the order of the test is extended to the multivariate setting as well. The performance of the tests are compared through simulation and the methods are applied to univariate temperature and multivariate air quality series. Empirical results show that by accounting for the correlation between series substantial improvements in power can be made in the detection of differences in the autocovariance.